Russia Plans Coup d'Etat or Invasion of Ukraine?

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Kyiv - The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that Ukraine intelligence has uncovered a plan of Coup d'état to have taken place next week involving forces from Russia. The president declined to say if he thinks Kremlin was directly involved but mentioned that they have audio recordings of plotters, including people from Russia, trying to get Ukrainian oligarch and former MP Rinat Akhmetov into joining the coup. "We are in full control of our borders and are fully prepared for any escalation," President Zelenskiy said. Kremlin was swift to deny any involvement in the matter. 

The news arrives amidst rising fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, stemming from Russia's months-long build-up of troops near the Ukrainian border. For instance, in April this year, Moscow mobilized thousands of troops close to its border with Ukraine alarming Washington and NATO, but soon returned some of the forces to their base while some remained, after President Biden's summit with President Putin.

Currently, with the recent buildup, Russia has more than 92,000 troops situated around Ukraine’s borders according to the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, who also claims that Moscow is preparing for an attack by the end of January or the beginning of February. Alarmed by the worsening situation, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has urged NATO to send warships to the Black Sea and step up surveillance flights along Russia’s borders.

US officials are closely monitoring the build-up along the Russian border and have briefed EU counterparts and their allies on a possible military operation. Earlier this week, President Biden restated “our unwavering support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine". He is currently preparing for a virtual summit with Vladimir Putin. 

International relations experts and Russian monitors have mixed forecasts of whether the Kremlin would actually try to invade Ukraine, but one thing is clear - with new Russian troops in place along the border, as Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba said, "it will not take Russia a lot of time to resort to an offensive action if it decides to do so."

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