Vladimir Putin Forever, or Who Shall Follow Him?

Click to watch the trailer of "Nemtsov"

KREMLIN - Vladimir Putin has commenced his fifth presidential term, extending his leadership for another six years. Having governed Russia for nearly a quarter-century, he now surpasses all other Kremlin leaders in tenure since Josef Stalin. As Putin's current term concludes in 2030, he remains eligible for another presidential run.

Several EU countries boycotted Putin's inauguration, citing unfair electoral practices and his approach to the Ukraine situation. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier denounced the election as illegitimate, a sentiment echoed by Poland's Foreign Ministry.

Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, discouraged EU representatives from attending the inauguration, highlighting the contradiction in recognizing a leader whose election lacked fairness and who is under scrutiny by the International Criminal Court for actions in Ukraine.

Although The Kremlin ensured Vladimir Putin had no credible opponent so it was always certain he would secure a fifth term, Mikhail Mishustin, the tax chief to become Russia's prime minister in 2020, has Article 92 of the Russian constitution, which would make him interim president — and commander-in-chief of a country at war — if something were to abruptly stop Putin from carrying out his duties.

Like many other senior Russian officials, Mishustin appears to have been caught off guard by Putin's decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022, but he has publicly stayed loyal to his leader. At an emergency meeting called by Putin three days before he sent Russian troops over the border, Mishustin suggested Moscow continue dialogue with the West about the two breakaway statelets in eastern Ukraine before deciding whether to recognize them. And though the prime minister usually speaks about the war with a lack of enthusiasm, he has stayed on in his role, not challenging the Kremlin's messaging, working for Russia's "technological and economic sovereignty" in the face of pressure from "the collective West."

During his time in office, Vladimir Putin has methodically tightened his grip on power so no real threat to his rule exists any longer. His most outspoken critics are either dead, in jail, or in exile. This leads to Russia’s opposition being divided more than ever before — both physically, and politically, by disagreements over a slew of issues.

Russia’s most prominent opposition figure Alexei Navalny died on Feb. 16 in the Arctic penal colony where he was serving a 19-year prison sentence, dealing a major blow to the country’s beleaguered opposition. In 2020, springing into action, Cinema for Peace mobilized a medical evacuation team and a specially outfitted aircraft to transport Navalny to Berlin's renowned Charité hospital. The operation was a logistical and diplomatic feat, requiring deft negotiations with Russian authorities to secure Navalny's safe passage.

Who shall follow Putin?

Vladimir Kara-Murza and Ilya Yashin are just two of the many activists and opposition figures currently behind bars for speaking out against the Kremlin or the war in Ukraine.

Journalist and Kremlin critic Kara-Murza is currently serving a 25-year sentence on treason charges related to his work on the Global Magnitsky Act, which has allowed the U.S. and allies to sanction government officials worldwide who are human rights offenders. Throughout his career, Kara-Murza has come up against many of the same challenges faced by Navalny during his lifetime, including electoral losses marred by fraud, poisonings, decades-long prison sentences, and deteriorating health while in prison.

Opposition politician Yashin, meanwhile, is serving eight and a half years in prison on charges of spreading false information about the military after he said Russian forces were behind the massacre of civilians in the Ukrainian city of Bucha. Yashin, whom Navalny described as his “first friend in politics,” joined the liberal Yabloko party in 2000 and is known for being relatively mild-mannered and untarnished by the nationalism of Navalny’s earlier years. In his final statement in court, Yashin said: “I must remain in Russia, I must speak the truth loudly.”

Exiled opposition activist Maxim Katz and ex-oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky are among the Kremlin’s more prominent critics in exile, working from their respective bases in Israel and Britain.

Khodorkovsky — believed to have been the richest person in Russia when he was sentenced to prison on politically motivated fraud charges in 2003 — has used his wealth to fund the pro-democracy group Open Russia and several online news outlets over the past decade.

Katz, whose YouTube channel has over 2 million subscribers, met with Khodorkovsky last year as part of his efforts to unite the opposition. His ambitions to build an opposition coalition have so far been hampered by tensions with Navalny and his team, as well as his reputation for being difficult to work with.

“I have always called for a coalition because, among other reasons, I knew just how vulnerable individual opposition leaders are,” Khodorkovsky told The New York Times. “A coalition is much more stable as a system because if one person is gone, others are left.”

As trailer of the week, we highlight the film “Nemtsov” - a documentary film about Boris Nemtsov, the Russian opposition leader who was assassinated in Moscow on February 27, 2015. It was written, directed, and narrated by Vladimir V. Kara-Murza.

Nemtsov's political career took off in the 1990s when he served as a deputy prime minister under Boris Yeltsin. He was a rising political star in post-Soviet Russia, widely seen as the leading candidate to succeed Yeltsin as president. However, the political landscape shifted dramatically when Yeltsin unexpectedly resigned on December 31, 1999, and appointed Vladimir Putin as acting president.

A pro-Western reformer, Nemtsov served briefly as interim prime minister in 1998, a position he initially refused, but took on under pressure as well as Yeltsin’s daughter's urging, hoping to preserve her father's legacy.

Nemtsov's tenure was short-lived as Vladimir Putin swiftly consolidated power. Had Nemtsov refused the interim role and focused on his presidential bid, Russia's trajectory may have been altered toward greater democracy and reforms.

Instead, he became a vocal critic of Putin's increasingly authoritarian rule, leading to his tragic assassination in 2015. His story highlights the fragility of democracy and the sacrifices made by those challenging entrenched powers.

Nemtsov's legacy remains a symbol of hope for those who continue to advocate for a more open and pluralistic Russia.

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